Introduction
A
world in which warming reaches 4°C above preindustrial levels, would be one of
unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions,
with serious impacts on human systems, ecosystems, and associated services.
Iraq’s
man-made disasters, like war, have been in the media for the last decades, however
less covered is the current environmental crisis the country is experiencing. The
crisis includes rapid expansion of the desertification process, frequent and
intense dust storms, drought conditions, a reduction in rainfall across the
country and unprecedented heat waves with temperatures rising above 50°C in the
last couple of years (2). These severe environmental problems are highly
probably due to climate change as well as to its geographical and hydrological peculiarities,
although no specific studies to assess its likelihood have yet been conducted.
This
tool is created to inform the general public of Iraq and is meant to illustrate
how recent changes in the environment in Iraq coincide with what scientists and
a recent report of the IPCC are predicting would be the impacts of climate
change.
The following map is part of an effort to map climate change impacts in Iraq. It shows different Iraqi cities and the corresponding climate change challenges. It contains pictures as well as other links to reports and additional information from different sources.
Note: To see the map, please click on the upper right square to view the map on Full Screen.
1. Impacts on Iraq Water Resources
1. Impacts on Iraq Water Resources
Iraq relies on
more than half it's water originating outside it's own borders: mainly in
Turkey, and to a lesser extent Iran and Syria. Flow rates in the Tigris and
Euphrates rivers have fallen to a third of normal capacity. Iraq
The
predictions of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) used by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change present a pessimistic picture of the
flows in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Precipitation in the highlands of
Turkey is predicted to be reduced by 10-60%, which in turn translates into a
similar decline in the flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. One recent
study predicted that the Euphrates river flow will be reduced by 29% to 73% and
the entire Fertile Crescent may disappear by the end of the century (3).
In a recent
study, scientists at the University of California, Irvine; NASA's Goddard Space
Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.; and the National Center for Atmospheric
Research in Boulder, Colo., found during a seven-year period beginning in 2003
that parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran along the Tigris and Euphrates river
basins lost 117 million acre feet (144 cubic kilometers) of total stored
freshwater. That is almost the amount of water in the Dead Sea. The researchers
attribute about 60 percent of the loss to pumping of groundwater from
underground reservoirs.
The negative
impact of climate change on Iraq is further magnified by human intervention in
the natural cycle. Iraq’s water resources management are challenged by a series
of water development projects that include major dams and irrigation schemes on
the Euphrates and Tigris rivers and their tributaries have altered the
hydrological cycle. The huge storage areas
behind the Turkish, Iranian and Syrian dams are now absorbing peak flows that
occur naturally during spring times. Neighboring countries control releases
according to their own needs and requirements.
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Deep Dives:
Water in Iraq
Factsheet
Water
and its management needs to be prioritised by the Government of Iraq
since it plays a key role in the sustainable development of the country
and its fundamental to eradicating poverty and hunger (MDG1), reducing
child mortality (MDG4) ensuring environmental sustainability (MDG7).
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A new study
using data from a pair of gravity-measuring NASA satellites finds that large
parts of the arid Middle East region lost freshwater reserves rapidly during
the past decade.
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2. Drought
Iraq high
dependency on water that comes out of its borders makes it vulnerable to
climate change. The amount of water available per
person has also dropped by more than half since the late 1970s, and the
country’s main sources of surface water—the Tigris and
the Euphrates Rivers—could dry up entirely by 2040 if current conditions
continue. Meanwhile, 39 percent of Iraq’s agricultural land has suffered a
reduction in cropped land—which means increasing food insecurity, in a
country with a growing population (6).
The area
of the Earth’s land surface affected by drought has also likely increased
substantially over the last 50 years, somewhat faster than projected by climate
models.
The IPCC
reports that climatic trends where temperature and precipitation go in the opposite
directions have accumulated to produce four consecutive dry years following
2006 in Syria, and Iraq with the 2007–08 drought being particularly
devastating. As the vast majority of crops in this country are non-irrigated, the
region is highly vulnerable to meteorological drought. In combination with
water mismanagement, the 2008 drought rapidly led to water stress with more
than 40 percent of the cultivated land affected, strongly reducing wheat and
barley production. The repeated droughts resulted in significant losses for the
population, affecting in total 1.3 million people (800,000 of whom were
severely affected), and contributing to the migration of tens of thousands of
families. Clearly, these impacts are also strongly influenced by non-climatic factors,
such as governance and demography, which can alter the exposure and level of
vulnerability of societies. The report states qualitatively that the largely
human-induced shift toward a climate with more frequent droughts in the eastern
Mediterranean is already causing societal impacts in this climatic “hotspot.” (1)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Deep
Dives:
Climate Change Impact on Iraqi Water and
Agriculture Sectors, By Dr. Hassan Janabi*
Dr.
Hassan Janabi, Iraq Ambassador to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
of the United Nations, on his article about - Climate Change Impacts on
Iraqi Water and Agriculture Sectors paints a pessimistic picture for the
future based upon IPCC predictions.
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The SPEI Global
Drought Monitor offers near real-time information about global drought
conditions. Compare various time periods between 1955 and 2010 and describe how
different regions experience varying drought levels. How can this monitor help
determine regional impacts of droughts?
3. Dust Storms
Iraq is
one of the most affected countries in the Middle East concerning the
occurrences of sand and dust storms. The frequency of the occurrence has increased
drastically in the last decade and it is increasing continuously (9). The
events of sand and dust storms are either regional or local. In Iraq, the
Ministry of Environment recorded 122 dust-storms and 283 dusty days and sources
suggest that within the next ten years, Iraq could witness 300 dust-storms per
year. These projections underscore the urgent need for a concerted regional
effort to address the phenomenon today (8).
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| Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA. |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------Deep
Dives:
Iraq is considered one of the region’s most vulnerable countries to climate change and it faces a unique set of environmental challenges. Rising environmental degradation and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, especially Sand and Dust Storms (SDS), take an enormous toll on socio-economic life and human development across the region. It has been recognized that climate change and environmental degradation transcend boundaries and that they can’t be addressed effectively through national level interventions alone.
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4. Desertification
As much
as 31% of Iraq’s surface is desert. Years of inappropriate farming practices
and mismanagement of water resources have exacerbated the effects of an already
dry climate and contributed to increasing rates of desertification.
The
seemingly unstoppable desert expansion is creeping up and taking over the
fertile lands in Iraq in an unprecedented speed! It is manifested in a dramatic
shrinking of green cover and the losses of millions of trees and tens of
thousands of hectares of cultivable land and diminishing agricultural production
(4).
An
estimate of 39% of the country’s surface has been affected by desertification,
with an additional 54% under threat. As a result of declining soil moisture and
lack of vegetative cover, recent years have witnessed an increase in the
frequency of vast dust and sand storms, often originating in the western parts
of Iraq (2).
5. Ecosystems
5. Ecosystems
An
assessment of climate change effects on ecosystems and their services found that
as greenhouse gas emissions and other stresses continue at or above current
rates, the resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded.
Approximately 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species assessed so far are
likely to be at increased risk of extinction, if increases in global average
temperature exceed of 2–3° above preindustrial levels (1).
One of
Iraq’s most important ecosystem, and once the largest wetland in southwestern
Asia, the marshes are the most important stopover for migratory birds flying
from north-central Eurasia to Eastern Africa. They are home of numerous bird,
mammal, amphibian and reptile species, many of which are globally threatened.
The marshlands support fishery resources, which account for 60% of Iraq’s fish
catch and have shown a 50% decline due to decreased water availability. During
and after the Iraq-Iran wars in the 1980’s, about 90% of Iraq’s marshes were
drained. After the 2003 resources have been made available to restore the
marshlands. The restoration of the marshes depends on water availability, which
is impacted by climate change and regional geopolitics.
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Deep
Dives:
The
report focuses on the importance of the Marshlands ecosystem services and the
social, economic, and cultural benefits they provide to the Iraqi people, and
the report shows the need to intensify the work being done for Marshlands revitalization
and rehabilitation. However, revitalizing the Marshlands is more than just
bringing backwater, people, and biodiversity to the wetlands. The Marshlands’
future depends on how successfully Iraq is able to strike a balance between
national development, including the development of the oil industry
infrastructure in the Marshlands area, and environmental conservation.
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At the dawn of the new millennium, the tragic loss of the Mesopotamian
marshlands stands out as one of the world’s greatest environmental disasters. Dams
and drainage schemes have transformed one of the finest wetlands, the fabled
Eden of the Fertile Crescent that has inspired humanity for millennia, into
salt- encrusted desert. The ecological life-support system of a distinct
indigenous people dwelling in a rare water-world of dense reed beds and teeming
wildlife has collapsed
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6. Floods
It is
well established that climate change will bring about substantial changes in
precipitation patterns, as well as in surface temperature and other quantities
that govern evapotranspiration. More intense rain events were reported all over
Iraq in 2013. Iraq reported floods in the south of Iraq, in May 2013, and
Baghdad in November and December 2013.
 |
| Satellite Map of Iraq Floods 2013. Image: Floodlist.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Deep Dives:
 |
After the heavy rain that hit Baghdad and other provinces last February
revealed the inability of Iraqi infrastructure to contain any emergency,
heavier rain in southern Iraqi cities over the last six days has resulted in large
human and material losses. The provinces of Dhi Qar, Maysan and Wasit, besides
some areas of the capital, witnessed heavy rain during
the past few days that flooded streets and destroyed crops, while some houses
collapsed.
7. Unprecedented Heat Waves
According
to the most recent IPCC report, human-induced climate change since the 1960s
has increased the frequency and intensity of heat waves and thus also likely
exacerbated their societal impacts. In regions such as the Mediterranean, North
Africa, the Middle East, and the Tibetan plateau, almost all summer months are
likely to be warmer than the most extreme heat waves presently experienced.
The last
decade has seen an exceptional number of extreme heat waves around the world
with consequential severe impacts. Iraq has experienced an unprecedented heat
wave with temperatures rising above 50°C just last summer. Iraq had its hottest
day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra.
Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash
Shu'aybah (7).
Deep
Dives:
Even
Iraqi government ministries can't keep air conditioning on amid a summer
electricity crisis. With the start of Ramadan today, observant Muslims are
facing 14 hours without water.
8. Salinity and Water Crisis in Basra
The water
quality issues are mostly salinization of the water coming from the Euphrates
and Tigris Rivers that form the Shatt Al Arab. This salinization is due mainly
to decreased flow of the two rivers, causing the salty water from the gulf to
enter into the river. The reasons are upstream damming and re-routing of the
Tigris and Euphrates and its tributaries that feed into the rivers and push the
salty water into the sea. Over the last 20 years, dam projects in Iran and
Turkey have reduced the water of the Euphrates and the Tigris significantly;
some studies reveal reductions of over 75% on the Euphrates. Iran has also
dammed the Karun river that feeds directly and contributes around two thirds of
the Shatt al Arab. This has caused tremendous damage to the water supply,
agriculture and herding.
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Deep Dives:
The water
quality issues are mostly salinization of the water coming from the Euphrates
and Tigris Rivers that form the Shatt Al Arab. This salinization is due mainly
to decreased flow of the two rivers, causing the salty water from the gulf to
enter into the river. The reasons are upstream damming and re-routing of the
Tigris and Euphrates and its tributaries that feed into the rivers and push the
salty water into the sea.
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Three months ago several municipal councils in the Faw villages
(90 km from the centre of Basra’s province) sent the first danger signals,
announcing an increase in the water salinity level of rivers connected to the
Shatt al-Arab. They warned that the high salt level was harming agriculture and
killing livestock.
Moving Beyond Climate Change
The IPCC
report tells us that warming of 4°C can still be avoided: numerous studies show
that there are technically and economically feasible emissions pathways to hold
warming likely below 2°C. Thus the level of impacts that countries like Iraq
and the rest of the world experience will be a result of government, private
sector, and civil society decisions and choices, including, unfortunately,
inaction.
A
recent five-year
agreement between the Iraqi government and the UN environment aims
to help the country overcome many of the environmental challenges it is facing.
The program includes development of environmental legislation and regulation, biodiversity conservation,
the green economy, cleaner production, resources efficiency, combating dust
storms and climate change reporting, mitigation and adaptation. Moreover, a
reforestation project, called the National Green Belt is part of the steps that
the Iraqi government has taken in its environmental recovery efforts. The
project seeks to plant More than 200 million trees on an area of at least 3000
sq.km, irrigated by ground water through closed irrigation systems operated by
solar power.
In
the area of water resources, Iraq needs to develop and implement a national
water strategy. At the international level, ensuring that Iraq has adequate
water supplies requires that all riparian countries (Turkey, Syria, Iran and
Iraq) work together to establish a transboundary water
agreement that includes a regime for the management of the Tigris basin and to
clarify substantive obligations between the countries.
With its
financial resources, Iraq has the capacity to invest in its future and to reduce
the negative impact of global warming on its economy.
Works Cited
1.
World
Bank Group. 2012 “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided"
http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf
2.
IAU 2012,
Climate Change in Iraq Factsheet
3.
Iraqi
Economist Network, Dr. H. Janabi, Climate Change Impact on Iraqi Water and
Agriculture Sectors.
4.
Iraqi
Economist Network, Dr. H. Janabi, Combatting the Expanding Desert: National
Green Belt Project in Iraq, Iraqi Economist Network, Retrieved February 18,
2014. http://iraqieconomists.net/en/2013/01/11/combatting-the-expanding-desert-national-green-belt-project-in-iraq/
5.
Thompson
Reuters Foundation, Iraq's environment, water supply in severe decline –
Report, Retrieved February 17, 2014. http://www.trust.org/item/20140127121610-cdrqu/?source=hptop
6.
Ecowatch,
Environmental Degradation From Climate Change and Conflict Plagues Iraq,
Retrieved on February 16, 2014. http://ecowatch.com/2014/01/29/environmental-degradation-climate-change-conflict-iraq/
7.
Extreme
heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East,
Retrieved on February 17, 2014. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/93l-still-disorganized-extreme-heat-wave-hits-the-middle-east-and-afr
8.
Sand
and Dust Storms Fact Sheet
